Major League Baseball has taken a significant step into one of the most controversial frontiers in modern sports economics: prediction markets. Just last week, on the eve of opening day, the MLB announced an agreement with Polymarket for Polymarket to become the official prediction market of the league.[1] As part of the agreement, the MLB will also enter into an information sharing agreement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which aligns with one of the key advantages prediction markets like Polymarket offer: federal oversight of “betting.”[2]
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have gained massive traction in the sports and entertainment business as they offer a unique and unprecedented way for users to “bet” that cannot be found via traditional sportsbooks. Prediction markets allow users to “trade” on future events (games, championships, etc.) in a way that mimics the stock market, as opposed to the traditional odds-based system. On prediction markets, users trade on the outcome of certain events against each other, which in turn creates a crowd sourced probability engine that reflects probabilities in real time.[3] Proponents of these prediction markets argue that the prediction markets allow for a more accurate reflection of user expectations as opposed to betting “against the house.” Additionally, prediction markets have gained traction as they are subject to federal oversight. This caveat allows for consistency across the states, while traditional betting is subject to varying state laws.[4]
In formally involving itself with Polymarket, the MLB seems to be betting on prediction markets continuing to gain traction as a commodities platform while avoiding being marked as a means of gambling. In response to integrity concerns, Commissioner Rob Manfred has stressed that by working directly with Polymarket and entering into an information sharing agreement with the CFTC, the MLB can closely monitor irregular activity on the prediction markets while also ensuring competitive integrity of the game, thus showing confidence that users can confidently trade on the platform.[5] Additionally, other leagues, such as the MLS, have already entered into agreements with Polymarket, thus further showcasing how the new age of “betting” is already underway.[6]
As the MLB prepares for opening day this week, it is undeniable that Polymarket will see an influx of trading on the platform, thus kicking off the start to a new era of “betting” as it pertains to America’s pastime.
[1] David Purdum, MLB reaches agreements with Polymarket, federal commission, ESPN (March 19, 2026).
[2] Bill King, MLB dives into federally regulated betting world with CFTC, Polymarket, Sports Business Journal (March 23, 2026).
[3] Anderson Cooper, Aliza Chasan, Graham Messick, Alex Ortiz, Polymarket CEO says his prediction market is “the most accurate thing we have as mankind right now,” CBS (November 30, 2025).
[4] Nick Devor, MLB Goes All-In on Prediction Markets—With Oversight From Feds, Barrons (March 19, 2026).
[5] Yogonet, MLB considers partnership with prediction markets amid integrity concerns, (February 17, 2026).
[6] Ben Horney, MLS Jumps Into Prediction Markets With Polymarket Deal, Front Office Sports (January 26, 2026).
Blake Breidenstein is a third year law student at the University at Buffalo School of Law who has spent much of his law school career studying how the law intertwines with the sports and entertainment industry. Throughout his time in law school, Breidenstein has supported the university's compliance office, working alongside a supervising attorney and staff in ensuring compliance with the ever-changing rules governing collegiate athletics. As a lifelong baseball player, Blake focuses much of his writing on the MLB, although his Buffalo roots occasionally turn his focus towards the Bills and Sabres.
Leave a Reply