Last Thursday, Buffalo Bills edge rusher Von Miller turned himself into Glenn Heights Police (Texas) on a charge of assaulting a pregnant person – a third-degree felony. The alleged victim is Miller’s long-time girlfriend. Miller has been released on bond, and the Bills are aware of the incident. The Bills GM, Brandon Beane, spoke on Wednesday afternoon stating that the Bills are following the NFL’s lead.[1]
The Bills tight-lipped strategy is not uncommon for NFL teams dealing with players, especially high profile players, who have been under investigation for or charged with a crime. More recently, the NFL has taken the position that it will let the legal process play out before deciding to suspend a player. That does not mean, however, that NFL always reaches the same result as the legal process. Take, for example, the NFL’s handling of two Texas grand jury investigations into Browns Quarterback Deshaun Watson. Watson was never charged by those grand juries[2], yet the NFL, after withholding any findings from its investigation of the situation until the legal process concluded, suspended Watson for 11 games and fined him $5,000,000 for violated the League’s Personal Conduct Policy.[3]
It appears the NFL and its teams handle these types of player incidents on a case-by-case basis. The NFL’s handling of the player often depends on the nature of the allegations, the amount of publicity received, and the amount of evidence against the player. Ray Rice never played another game in the NFL after the video of him assaulting a woman was publicized, yet Miller never faced discipline for a similar alleged incident in 2021 which has seemed to receive more publicity now than before.[4]
Ultimately, according to a peer-reviewed study published in the academic journal Violence Against Women, the most important factor in forecasting a player’s discipline is his talent. The study examined the post-arrest careers of 117 NFL players who were arrested from 2000 to 2019, and determined that a player’s competitive value — comprising of the percentage of games they started and using the approximate value metric created by Pro Football Reference — more strongly predicts how long his career will be than whether he is accused of violence against women.
While the study had its limitations, it also proved something that all sports fans know: the more valuable a player is to a team, the more immune the player is from punishment. The same goes for Miller’s fate. Miller is coming off an ACL tear in 2022 and has not been the game-breaking pass rusher the NFL has come to know. As a result, multiple media outlets have speculated that the Bills may void Miller’s $17,145,000 salary next season, which becomes fully guaranteed in March 2024.[5] Miller’s contract allows the Bills to void the guarantees if he is suspended under the Personal Conduct Policy.[6.]
Many things need to happen before for this outcome could occur. Miller deserves his rights to due process and presumed innocence. Those rights, however, are not as fully guaranteed in the NFL CBA as in the U.S. Constitution.[7]
1 https://abcnews.go.com/Sports/wireStory/bills-gm-edge-rusher-von-miller-practice-play-105425618
6 Id.
Photo Credit: Duane Burleson AP
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